{"id":60584,"date":"2024-12-30T13:00:33","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T18:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.canadianmortgagetrends.com\/2024\/12\/previsions-du-marche-de-lhabitation-et-des-taux-dinteret-pour-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-02-19T13:11:20","modified_gmt":"2025-02-19T18:11:20","slug":"previsions-du-marche-de-lhabitation-et-des-taux-dinteret-pour-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/2024\/12\/previsions-du-marche-de-lhabitation-et-des-taux-dinteret-pour-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9visions du march\u00e9 de l&#8217;habitation et des taux d&#8217;int\u00e9r\u00eat pour 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le march\u00e9 immobilier a trouv\u00e9 son \u00e9quilibre gr\u00e2ce au cycle actuel d\u2019assouplissement et \u00e0 une \u00e9conomie solide, avec des ventes et des prix de maisons en l\u00e9g\u00e8re hausse dans tout le pays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La reprise \u00e9conomique s\u2019est manifest\u00e9e de fa\u00e7on in\u00e9gale. Les emprunteurs continuent de subir la pression des co\u00fbts \u00e9lev\u00e9s malgr\u00e9 les baisses de taux, particuli\u00e8rement lors du renouvellement hypoth\u00e9caire. L\u2019offre insuffisante de logements maintient par ailleurs la question de l\u2019abordabilit\u00e9 au c\u0153ur des priorit\u00e9s des d\u00e9cideurs et des acheteurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les perspectives pour 2025 inspirent un optimisme prudent, malgr\u00e9 des incertitudes. Les \u00e9conomistes et analystes pr\u00e9voient les tendances suivantes pour le march\u00e9 de l\u2019habitation et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March\u00e9 immobilier<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"598\" height=\"413\" src=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/download-4-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-60589\" srcset=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/download-4-2.png 598w, https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/download-4-2-100x69.png 100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 598px) 100vw, 598px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Association canadienne de l\u2019immeuble (ACI)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9visions des ventes d\u2019habitations en 2025 : 499\u202f816 (+6,6 % sur un an)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00ab\u202fLes ventes abandonnent leur trajectoire d\u2019am\u00e9lioration progressive pour entrer dans une phase de stabilit\u00e9. Le march\u00e9 devrait maintenir ce plateau jusqu\u2019au printemps prochain avant d\u2019amorcer un rebond marqu\u00e9. Les pr\u00e9visions subissent donc une l\u00e9g\u00e8re r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la baisse pour 2024, mais une dynamique vigoureuse pourrait s\u2019installer d\u00e8s le deuxi\u00e8me trimestre 2025.\u202f\u00bb<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9vision du prix des maisons en 2025 : 713\u202f375 $ (+4,4 %)<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.crea.ca\/media-hub\/news\/quarterly-forecasts-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Source<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Royal LePage<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9vision des prix des maisons pour le T4 2025 : 856\u202f692 $ (+6 % d\u2019une ann\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019autre)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Commentaire : Phil Soper, pr\u00e9sident-directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de Royal LePage, constate un retour \u00e0 la stabilit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 immobilier pour 2025. Les acheteurs qualifi\u00e9s s\u2019accumulent tandis que leur capacit\u00e9 d\u2019emprunt devrait augmenter gr\u00e2ce aux nouvelles r\u00e8gles hypoth\u00e9caires. \u00ab\u202fLa Banque du Canada a modifi\u00e9 son approche, passant de la lutte contre l\u2019inflation \u00e0 la stimulation \u00e9conomique. Cette transition influence progressivement les acheteurs. Le march\u00e9 s\u2019est nettement dynamis\u00e9 d\u00e8s la baisse de taux de 50 points au d\u00e9but du quatri\u00e8me trimestre. Les acheteurs, d\u00e9sormais convaincus que les prix ont touch\u00e9 leur plancher, souhaitent agir avant l\u2019intensification de la concurrence.\u202f\u00bb<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.royallepage.ca\/en\/realestate\/news\/canadian-property-price-appreciation-set-for-a-return-to-long-term-norms-in-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Source<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Re\/Max<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Augmentation du prix moyen en 2025 : +5 % d\u2019une ann\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019autre<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Commentaire : \u00ab\u202fLes Canadiens abordent 2025 avec optimisme sur le march\u00e9 immobilier. Les baisses successives des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat fin 2024 ont raviv\u00e9 leur confiance. Le r\u00e9seau RE\/MAX Canada pr\u00e9voit un march\u00e9 dynamique pour l\u2019an prochain. Les prix r\u00e9sidentiels devraient grimper de cinq pour cent au niveau national. Les ventes progresseront dans 33 r\u00e9gions sur 37, avec des hausses atteignant 25 %. \u00bb<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.remax.ca\/canadian-housing-market-outlook\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Source<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Services \u00e9conomiques <a href=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/apercu-des-taux-et-produits-hypothecaires-rbc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">RBC<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9vision des reventes de maisons en 2025 : 518\u202f400 (+12,5 % par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Commentaire : \u00ab La hausse r\u00e9cente des ventes devrait se maintenir dans les mois \u00e0 venir, mais progressera mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment. Les baisses de taux \u00e0 venir attireront plus d\u2019acheteurs actuellement h\u00e9sitants. Les contraintes d\u2019accessibilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re freineront toutefois leur entr\u00e9e sur le march\u00e9. \u00bb<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9vision du prix des maisons pour le quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2025 : 809\u202f900 $ (+1,6 %)<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Commentaire : \u00ab Les prix immobiliers n\u2019augmenteront que graduellement d\u2019apr\u00e8s nous. Les baisses de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat devront d\u2019abord restaurer l\u2019accessibilit\u00e9 \u00e0 la propri\u00e9t\u00e9 l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine. \u00bb<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thoughtleadership.rbc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/home-resale-fcst_can.pdf?nocache\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Source<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Services \u00e9conomiques ID<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9vision de la croissance des ventes de maisons pour 2025 : +15,8 %<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Pr\u00e9vision de hausse du prix des maisons en 2025 : +8 %<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Commentaire \u00ab Les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt diminuent progressivement et stimulent les ventes de 2025. Les nouvelles r\u00e8gles hypoth\u00e9caires de d\u00e9cembre dynamisent davantage le march\u00e9. Le niveau des ventes d\u00e9passera m\u00eame les chiffres d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie d\u00e8s le quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024. \u00bb<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/economics.td.com\/ca-forecast-tables#home-sales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Source<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9visions des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>La <a href=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/the-bank-of-canada\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Banque du Canada<\/a> ralentira probablement ses baisses de taux en 2025. La BdC adoptera une approche plus prudente apr\u00e8s avoir effectu\u00e9 cinq r\u00e9ductions cons\u00e9cutives de 175 points de base au total en 2024. Les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques guideront d\u00e9sormais ses d\u00e9cisions \u00e0 chaque r\u00e9union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u2019ici la mi-2025, le taux du financement \u00e0 un jour devrait baisser davantage \u00e0 partir de 3,25 %, pour probablement se stabiliser entre 2,00 % et 3,00 %, selon l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019inflation et des conditions \u00e9conomiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les rendements obligataires devraient maintenir leur niveau actuel de 3,00 %. Ces rendements d\u00e9terminent largement les taux hypoth\u00e9caires fixes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les emprunteurs b\u00e9n\u00e9ficieront d\u2019un all\u00e8gement continu, mais ralenti des taux. Les pr\u00eats \u00e0 taux variable conna\u00eetront de nouvelles baisses. Les pr\u00eats hypoth\u00e9caires \u00e0 taux fixe gagneront en pr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 tout au long de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vous trouverez ci-dessous les plus r\u00e9centes <a href=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/big-bank-rate-forecasts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">pr\u00e9visions des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et des rendements obligataires<\/a> des six grandes banques, avec les changements par rapport \u00e0 leurs pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes entre parenth\u00e8ses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-pale-cyan-blue-background-color has-background\"><thead><tr><th>&nbsp;<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Taux directeur actuel :<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Taux directeur :<\/strong><br><strong>T4 25<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Taux directeur :<\/strong><br><strong>T4 26<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Obligations 5 ans :<\/strong><br><strong>T4 24<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Obligations 5 ans :<\/strong><br><strong>T4 25<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Obligations 5 ans :<\/strong><br><strong>T4 2<\/strong>6<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/BMO_Logo-transparent.png\" alt=\"BMO_Logo transparent\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><em><strong>3,25 %<\/strong><\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,50 %<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,95 % <em>(-10 pdb)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,75 % <em>(+15 pdb)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CIBC-Logo.png\" alt=\"\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><em><em><em><strong>3.25%<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.25%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.25%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">S.O.<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">S.O.<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">S.O.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/National_Bank_of_Canada-Logo_transparent2.png\" alt=\"National_Bank_of_Canada-Logo_transparent2\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><em><em><em><strong>3,25 %<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,25 % <em>(+25 pdb)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.75%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.90%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,50 % <em>(+20 pdb)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.85%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a href=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/rbc-mortgages-rates-and-products\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/rbc-royal-bank-logo-png-transparent.png\" alt=\"Logo RBC\"><\/a><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><em><em><em><strong>3.25%<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.00%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,85 % (-10 pdb)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.45%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/Scotiabank-Logo-PNG-03791-1.png\" alt=\"\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><em><em><em><strong>3.25%<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3.00%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,90 % <em>(-10 pdb)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3,50 %<br><em>(-25 pdb)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3.50%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/TD-Bank-Logo.png\" alt=\"\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><em><em><em><strong>3.25%<\/strong><\/em><\/em><\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.25%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.25%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,90 % <em>(-15 pdb)<\/em><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2.75%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2,75 %<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Derni\u00e8re mise \u00e0 jour : 30 d\u00e9cembre 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"tmnf_excerpt meta_deko\"><p>Le march\u00e9 canadien de l&#8217;habitation et du cr\u00e9dit hypoth\u00e9caire a fait preuve de r\u00e9silience en 2024. La Banque du Canada a enfin chang\u00e9 de cap apr\u00e8s deux ann\u00e9es de hausses incessantes. Les emprunteurs ont ainsi b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d&#8217;un all\u00e9gement tant attendu gr\u00e2ce aux baisses de taux.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":60577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10239,10238],"tags":[11580,10537,9655,10330,10254,11467,11582,11466,10416,10488,11383,9090,9465,9312,11585,10331],"class_list":["post-60584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-immobilier","category-taux-dinteret","tag-11580","tag-editors-pick","tag-interest-rate-forecast","tag-les-6-grandes-banques","tag-les-rendements-obligataires","tag-marche-de-lhabitation","tag-perspectives-du-marche-immobilier","tag-prevision","tag-previsions-de-rendement-des-obligations","tag-previsions-de-taux-de-la-banque-du-canada","tag-previsions-des-grandes-banques","tag-rbc-economics","tag-re-max","tag-royal-lepage","tag-services-economiques-td","tag-taux-dinteret"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60584"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63495,"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60584\/revisions\/63495"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadianmortgagetrends.thedev.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}